After a turbulent year for transport in 2023 – with the cancellation of the northern leg of HS2, Network North, Plan for Drivers and a U-turn on ticket office closures - this year is likely to be just as eventful. So, what is in store for 2024?

Bus franchising rolling on

Two of our members, West Yorkshire and South Yorkshire, are set to decide the future of their bus networks this year. Both Mayoral Combined Authorities are considering following Manchester and Liverpool on the franchising journey. As we noted in our recent report A Smoother Ride, there is much the Government and transport authorities can learn from Manchester’s experience to make the journey faster and cheaper. 

At the end of 2023, West Yorkshire Mayor Tracy Brabin joined our Urban Transport Next series of conversations to discuss her vision for bus franchising and future of transport in the region. Fittingly, South Yorkshire’s Mayor Oliver Coppard is our next guest – make sure you book a place to hear more about South Yorkshire’s journey and plans.

As some areas are considering the future of their bus networks, Greater Manchester is about to enter phase 2 of the Bee Network. At the end of March, franchised Bee Network bus services will launch in Oldham, Rochdale, and parts of Bury, Salford and north Manchester, painting even more of the region yellow.

March Budget – a new hope for transport?

The Autumn Statement failed to include any new transport measures, despite the Chancellor’s focus on addressing the cost-of-living crisis. This was further compounded by the OBR estimates that the spending of unprotected departments would need to fall by 2.3% per year in real terms from 2025/26 under the Autumn budget measures.

A date of 6 March has been set for the next fiscal announcement – the last before an expected General Election. As we approach March, the ongoing narrative about the announcements expected is not giving much reason to be cheerful, but we will continue to make the case for sustainable long-term funding for transport networks and infrastructure across the country.

Devolved functions and funding

Whilst the Autumn Statement didn’t offer boosted transport funds, there was some welcome progress on devolution across the country, as the Chancellor confirmed four new devolution agreements – Hull and East Riding Mayoral Combined Authority, Greater Lincolnshire Mayoral Combined County Authority, Lancashire Combined County Authority, and the Cornwall Devolution Deal.

Before these authorities are set to be established in 2025, two new Mayoral Combined Authorities will gain their first Mayors this May – East Midlands and York & North Yorkshire – both areas with significant challenges and opportunities facing their transport networks. 

Alongside the new deals, the government also provided details on how it plans to extend devolution in England through the Level 4 devolution framework, which includes further levers on local transport as well as the promise of a single pot transport settlement. We are expecting progress this year for those authorities who choose to take up the Level 4 offer.

A Memorandum of Understanding, published as part of the Autumn Statement, marked a significant step towards single funding settlements for the West Midlands and Greater Manchester Combined Authorities. Significant further steps in finalising the agreement are expected this year.

New faces in Wales

As the Seneed continues to work on bus reform legislation, Wales is set to have a new First Minister following Mark Drakeford’s resignation at the end of 2023. Will his successor take a forward-thinking approach to transport in Wales?

Interestingly, the North Wales Transport Commission, chaired by Lord Burns, recently suggested that a pilot could be undertaken on Anglesey of “total transport”, where budgets and fleets of public sector passenger vehicles would be merged.

Scotland’s transport vision

We are expecting the transport year in Scotland to start with publication of the Fair Fares Review, accompanied by a ‘Vision for Public Transport’. Following the recent initiatives like the under-22s scheme and removal of peak fares on the railway, we hope the review will present the next holistic steps forward for Scotland’s networks to recover patronage and not only safeguard but expand services.

A year of elections

2024 will be defined by a myriad of elections. First up will be local councils and almost all Mayoral Combined Authorities (including the two newcomers) in May. With transport, particularly bus services, high on people’s priorities, we are likely to hear lots about plans for transport network improvements from all parties and candidates.

The expectation is that the UK wide electorate will head to the polls sometime this year – with current predictions including May, October and November. Whilst the specific date is yet unknown, the political campaigning has already started and is only set to intensify. Given transport policy interventions deliver on multiple fronts, simultaneously – from achieving Net Zero to improving public health, and from boosting economic growth, to enabling social justice – the transport pledges made by political parties vying for power will form a significant part of their platforms and will be crucial for the direction of travel for the next four years in UK transport policy.

Whichever party wins the election, there will be difficult choices to be made on transport policy and investment. The challenge for the transport sector between now and the election is to be clear in our priorities and speak with one voice.

Will uncertainty remain?

2023 and the previous few years have been characterised by uncertainty in the transport sector. Will this year be any different? It looks unlikely, as there are many key decisions and promised policy solutions which were delayed last year and ongoing reforms rolling on into 2024, including the updated Local Transport Plan guidance, franchising guidance update and Bus Service Operators Grant (BSOG) reform. This means lots of number crunching and financial and policy headaches coming down the road for the transport sector and, most importantly, our members. That much is clear, as the year started with the release of the new guidelines for English National Concessionary Travel Scheme (ENCTS), which UTG and our members are assessing as I type!

For the Urban Transport Group team, 2024 is already shaping up to be a very busy and exciting year, with lots of new policy work, engagement with our members (via our refreshed Professional Network) and involvement in key future policy planning work, like the Rail and Urban Transport Review. You can hear more in person, plus a keynote from Secretary of State for Transport, Mark Harper, at our Parliamentary Reception on 6 March. Register your interest here.

Monta Drozdova is Policy and Research Advisor at the Urban Transport Group