To help our members plan bus networks efficiently and effectively, we have created the Metropolitan Bus Model – the most sophisticated bus modelling tool currently available.

The Metropolitan Bus Model is available exclusively to our full members – but we are happy to discuss its use by other organisations (though this would involve a contribution to the costs of creating and maintaining it).

This is an aggregate model which aims to forecast the impact of high level exogenous factors (e.g. population, employment, GDP, car ownership, fuel prices, public funding) on bus patronage, operator behaviour, fares, mileage and public funding.

The Model

The Metropolitan Bus Model has been used to inform work of the Urban Transport Group. It was used in the Steer report 'Continuing COVID Funding Support for Urban Public Transport' (February 2022) to model scenarios where Government Covid-related funding was withdrawn and what could happen if further revenue and capital funding was provided. 

See more work below that the Model has influenced.

 

Continuing COVID Funding Support for Urban Public Transport cover

Report

Continuing COVID Funding Support for Urban Public Transport

This report finds that if Government’s Covid-related financial support to urban public transport outside London ends (in March 2022), buses would soon be less frequent and more expensive, and patronage would be substantially lower than pre-Covid levels, potentially up to 30% lower.
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