When we published our first report on transport trends, ‘Inside track’, a year ago, the outlook for public transport in England looked rather precarious. The report, which tracked key trends over the past decade, showed the bus was stuck in a spiral of decline and that rail and light rail, which had seen significant growth pre-pandemic, were still significantly below previous levels. 

Fast forward 12 months, and public transport finds itself in a different light. There are, I am pleased to report, reasons to be more cheerful – especially in the most recent year of statistics. And our new edition of Inside track – The state of transport 2025, seeks to highlight these. 

So, what are the rays of hope in the latest figures? 

Positive headlines and bus patronage rarely go hand-in-hand, but growth in bus passenger numbers has been particularly strong in England’s city regions, with bus patronage in Greater Manchester reaching 92% of its pre-Covid (2019/20) figures, and the West Midlands hitting 95% of this. Bus patronage growth in the last year alone (2023/24) has been above the national English average (of 7%) in the West Midlands (11%), Greater Manchester (12%) and West Yorkshire (12%). 

More widely, across England, bus patronage hit 3.6 billion in 2023/24 (compared to 3.4 billion in 2022/23), still shy of the 4 billion bus passenger journeys in 2019/20, the last year before Covid-19, but getting ever closer.  

Just as hopeful, is the news that bus service provision in the city regions outside London grew by 3% on average in the last year.  

Although it’s undoubtedly been a difficult decade for the bus, these are all positive signs that we could be turning a corner in the fortunes of the bus. Bus reform, which is happening across many city regions in England, could also play a part. Early indications from Greater Manchester, which has recently completed its franchising journey, are that bus reform can deliver positive results. We look forward to seeing more data on this in the next year. 

Light rail, of which there are a number of networks across our member areas in England, has seen patronage grow by 8% in 2023/24 (compared to 2022/23), with patronage reaching 229 million. Whilst this is still 13% down on the 2019/20 figure, and 4% down on the last decade, this represents good progress on winning back passengers. In the next year, we may start to see some networks hit record levels of patronage.  

Rail is the standout success story in this year’s report, with patronage (in Great Britain) continuing its strong post-pandemic recovery, with trips growing 16% compared to the previous year. Patronage is now just 7% below 2019/20 (the last year before Covid-19), and if this rise continues, patronage could exceed the pre-Covid levels in the next year. It will be interesting to see if the rail reform agenda over the next few years has an impact. 

But it’s not all plain sailing. We are still a way off a true recovery for public transport. 

Whilst there are some positives for active travel schemes, demonstrating that where we invest in infrastructure (such as Manchester’s Oxford Road cycleway), we are seeing good results… cycling, walking and wheeling figures have largely flatlined, with a small drop in cycling numbers in 2023 (compared to 2022). 

The number of trips as a car or van driver (or passenger) have also increased by 9% in 2023 (up to 548, from 510 in 2022). If this trend continues, we are likely to see trips return to their pre-Covid high (of 602 trips per person) within the next year. This shows that we need to do more to support people to get out of their cars and to choose public and more active travel options. 

Yet more optimistically, we are increasingly seeing that devolution is delivering on transport. As my Director Jason Prince notes in his foreword to the report: “Where we take decisions on transport locally, and invest in local transport, it is local communities which are benefiting.” 

This is the true prize of devolution and once again shows that transport is a true enabler of economic growth and social cohesion. With a Government that appears to be genuinely committed to supporting the devolution agenda, I’m already eagerly anticipating 2026’s edition of Inside track. I am confident that it will tell an even more positive story for public transport and active across our city regions and England as a whole. 

Tom Ellerton is Technical Manager at Urban Transport Group, and the author of the Inside track report series